Improving Resilience of Agriculture via Crop Calendars
Summary
In 2024, the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) committed to leverage its sub-district level monsoon analysis to refine rainfall patterns and update crop weather calendars over the past decade. This initiative, running from 2024 to 2026 in the state of Maharashtra, focuses on enhancing monsoon variability understanding by examining onset, withdrawal, and weekly wet and dry spells during the critical kharif (monsoon) crop period, validated with data from priority districts. Aimed at improving the well-being of more than 7 million small and marginal farmers, the project seeks to implement resilient and sustainable agricultural practices to withstand changing climate conditions. The pilot will commence in Maharashtra, where 81% of the land is rainfed and experiencing significant monsoon variability. CEEW will collaborate closely with the India Meteorological Department and agricultural research universities in Maharashtra to reduce farmers’ vulnerability to crop losses, thereby enhancing their livelihoods and overall well-being.
Approach
Council on Energy, Environment & Water (CEEW) commits to leveraging its sub-district level monsoon analysis to assess rainfall patterns over the past decade and update crop weather calendars accordingly. This analysis will refine monsoon variability by examining onset, withdrawal, and weekly wet and dry spells during the critical kharif crop growing period, validated with observation data from priority districts.
Suitability of existing cropping practices to changed patterns will be assessed, proposing adjustments in varieties of sowing and harvesting times in new calendars. The initiative aims to enhance the health and well-being of farming communities by implementing more resilient and sustainable agricultural practices capable of enduring changing climate conditions. This will contribute to reducing the vulnerability of farmers to crop losses, thus positively impacting their livelihoods and overall quality of life in terms of physical and mental well being. The pilot will commence in Maharashtra, where 81% of the state is rainfed, with high month-to-month variability during the southwest monsoon.
For effective implementation and better uptake of this work, CEEW has collaborated with the Project on Climate Resilient Agriculture (PoCRA) , hosted under the Department of Agriculture, aimed at building the resilience of farmers in the state. This project is currently being implemented in the 21 districts in rainfed regions of Maharashtra, and the collaboration will provide access to on-field data.This project, with a duration for 2024-2026, will have positive impacts on nearly 7 million small and marginal farmers. CEEW will maintain regular engagement with the India Meteorological Department and agricultural research universities in Maharashtra.
While challenges may arise regarding micro-level dataset availability, CEEW’s expertise across Climate Resilience and Sustainable Food Systems programs, alongside partnerships, position the organization to overcome obstacles. Leveraging research capabilities, policy advocacy platforms, and engagements with governments and academia, CEEW aims to advance this initiative meaningfully.
Action Plan
CEEW’s project implementation will proceed systematically.
In FY 2024-25, during the first quarter, CEEW will identify strategic partners and stakeholders while pinpointing the most vulnerable and at risk districts in Maharashtra. In the second quarter, CEEW focus will be on conducting micro-level assessments of climate variables such as rainfall and temperature in these priority districts. The third quarter will involve analyzing existing cropping practices through stakeholder consultations and field visits. By the fourth quarter, CEEW aims to compile all inputs and analyses to develop the initial draft of weekly climate-smart cropping calendars for two districts in Maharashtra, complete with recommendations for all non-irrigated kharif crops grown in these areas.
Transitioning into FY 2025-26, the first quarter will see CEEW finalize and submit the climate-smart cropping calendar for the two identified districts and pilot it to evaluate changes in crop losses and productivity during the monsoon season. In the second, third, and fourth quarters, CEEW will expand the framework for the climate-smart calendar model across all rainfed agricultural districts in the state. CEEW’s target will be to cover approximately seven districts in each quarter, ensuring a comprehensive scaling-up process.
Background
In India, a developing country in the Global South, rainfed agriculture plays a vital role, encompassing over 50% of the net sown area and contributing to approximately 40% of the total production (Government of India, 2022) . Agriculture engages more than half of India’s population and contributes nearly 15% to the country’s GDP (Ministry of Agriculture 2023) .
However, India faces significant challenges due to extreme hydro-meteorological disasters, with over 75% of Indian districts prone to events like floods, cyclones, and droughts (CEEW, 2020) . Climate change has further exacerbated these challenges, particularly affecting monsoon rainfall patterns critical for rainfed (kharif) and winter (rabi) crops.
Over the last decade, nearly 11% of Indian sub-districts witnessed a decline in monsoon rainfall by more than 10% compared to the climatic baseline (1982-2011) . These regions, including the Indo-Gangetic plains, northeastern India, and the Indian Himalayan region, contribute significantly to India’s agricultural production. Approximately 68% of these sub-districts experienced reduced rainfall from June to September, crucial for Kharif crop sowing, which are also known as monsoon crops, are sown in June or July and harvested in September. These crops are rice, maize, millet, sugarcane, ragi, pulses, soybean, groundnut, etc. Additionally, 87% showed a decline during June and July, impacting the critical sowing phase (CEEW, 2024) .
While some sub-districts experienced increased southwest monsoon rainfall, they also faced more frequent extreme precipitation events. These chronic and acute climatic hazards challenge cropping cycles, disrupting sowing and harvesting phases, as existing weekly weather-based crop calendars do not consider climate change.
India’s heavy reliance on monsoons for rainfed agriculture, particularly in states like Maharashtra, where over 80% of agriculture
Progress Update
Partnership Opportunities
Best Practice: Access to proven methodologies and successful strategies for implementing climate resilience initiatives in agriculture is crucial for the success of our project. CEEW aims to incorporate globally recognized best practices into our initiatives with a targeted collaboration with the countries of the global south.
Financial Resources: Funding support is needed to scale up our project activities. This includes financial assistance for data collection, analysis, and the implementation of adaptation measures to bolster agricultural resilience.
Media Support: Assistance in raising awareness about our project and its impact through various media channels is essential. Support with social media, press releases, and outreach campaigns that will help in disseminating CEEW’s message effectively.
Topic Expertise: Collaboration with experts in climate science, agriculture, and sustainable development is vital to enhance the effectiveness of our initiatives. CEEW seeks to align their project with global best practices through knowledge sharing and expertise., Best practice: CEEW can provide valuable insights into best practices for analyzing changes in rainfall patterns and identifying suitable adaptations for cropping practices. The organization’s methodologies involve refining the analysis by thoroughly examining wet and dry spells, onset and withdrawal of the monsoon, and validating the findings with observation data. These comprehensive strategies are crucial for informed agricultural planning and resource management decision-making.
Topic Expertise: The CEEW team comprises seasoned researchers and experts in climate resilience and sustainable agriculture. They offer deep knowledge and understanding of climate science, agricultural practices, and policy frameworks. They have a proven track record of creating and publishing multiple reports tailored to different stakeholders at both the national and international levels. Their knowledge and expertise enable them to provide valuable insights and solutions in these critical areas.